After Backsliding, Will Democracy Make a Comeback?

Global democracy is in its 18th year of consecutive decline, with 51 countries suffering setbacks in 2023 alone. Much has been written about this so-called age of discontent, though the extent and nature of the backsliding is under debate. In 2024, the biggest election year in human history, the results around the world in favor of or against democracy appeared to cancel each other out prior to the November election of the illiberal figure President Donald Trump. If the United States is the most important country regarding the health of global democracy, it is highly unlikely that global democracy will make a discernible comeback in the near future.

What Is Behind the Backslide?

There is little consensus as to what is driving the global decline. Some argue it is Chinese power or Russian aggression, while others point to rising illiberalism and polarization in Western democracies or focus on the role of technology and social media. Still others feel these explanations fall short and maintain we need to focus on the role and motivations of leader-driven anti-democratic projects, as most of the democratic erosion stems from elected leaders. At the same time, electoral malfeasance remains one of the biggest challenges to global democracy.

It seems trite to say, “It’s the economy, stupid,” but substantial evidence dictates that income inequality, poor economic performance, and lack of economic opportunity give illiberal leaders an opening to exploit. As the rise of neoliberalism has overwhelmingly affected the economic plight of the poor and working class, it has led to a shift in voting to right-wing parties, many of them led by candidates espousing illiberal ideals. Thus, a decline in real income and rising income inequality go hand in hand with an erosion of support for democracy. 

What Can Be Done to Save Global Democracy?

There is no shortage of suggestions and policy recommendations; in fact, there are entire playbooks. Indeed, as the aforementioned factors threaten democracy, policymakers would do well to consider the promotion of democracy from a multifaceted perspective. With Trump’s election, however, international democracy supporters cannot expect the United States to take the lead in these efforts. Democracy’s best hope is Europe. 

Since the Nov. 5 election, scholars, pundits, and experts alike have spoken about a growing list of dangers that Trump 2.0 could pose for U.S. foreign policy, the quality of U.S. democracy, and the state of global democracy. However, a review of policies and activities of the first Trump administration show that he sustained a stable course in many areas of democracy funding and that he was no more or less successful in democracy promotion than his predecessors. Likewise, others make the case that Trump was more of a diplomatic success than his critics are willing to admit.

Until states are willing to consider economic welfare policies to narrow the gap between the wealthy and the impoverished, we will continue to have a crisis of global democracy. In the meantime, Europe must work collectively to take the lead on Ukraine policy, to invest in their own security and defense, and to present a united front in negotiating with Trump.

While we cannot predict if Trump will leave NATO or how many illiberal leaders he could inspire, we can be certain that the end of the era of American exceptionalism will become permanent if the root causes of democratic backsliding are ignored. 

A protester holds a placard reading, “Touche pas a notre democratie” (“Don’t touch our democracy”) as he takes part in a demonstration after the appointment of a right-wing prime minister following July snap elections, in Rennes, France, on Sept. 7, 2024. (Photo by Jerome Gilles/NurPhoto via Getty Images)