China has secured decisive strategic advantages across Africa through systematic economic and political engagement. This immediate challenge requires a coordinated global policy response from all major stakeholders including the United States, Western powers, emerging economies, and multilateral institutions. The continent’s trajectory will shape not just regional development but the future balance of global economic and strategic power.
Current Situation
The scale of China’s economic penetration tells only part of the story but reveals a stark strategic reality. Beijing has consistently displaced Washington as Africa’s dominant trading partner, with bilateral trade volumes reaching $282 billion in 2023 – four times the volume of U.S.-Africa trade. Chinese foreign direct investment in the region has seen an exponential rise, from $75 million in 2003 to a peak of $5 billion in 2022. Through the Belt and Road Initiative, China has committed over $170 billion in grants and loans to African nations since the turn of the century, creating a web of economic dependencies that will dictate the continent’s development trajectory and geopolitical alignment going forward.
More importantly, Beijing has strategically targeted critical sectors that will determine Africa’s future growth – particularly transportation infrastructure, digital networks, and manufacturing capacity. China controls up to 80% of the Democratic Republic of Congo’s cobalt production, giving it unprecedented leverage over global supply chains for electric vehicles and advanced technologies. China’s expanding military presence, anchored by its base in Djibouti and potential naval facilities in Gabon, further underscores its ambition to assert dominance in crucial maritime corridors in the Indian and South Atlantic oceans.
Critical Implications and Vulnerabilities
China is positioning itself as a preferred development partner through the joint pursuit of modernization. Its “non-interference” policy and resource-backed lending model approach has appealed to a segment of African leaders frustrated with the conditionalities often attached to Western aid and investment. The recent Forum on China-Africa Cooperation demonstrates China’s hard and soft power projection in the region concretely. Beyond securing attendance from 53 African nations, China renewed a significant financial commitment of $10 billion in investment, $10.7 billion in aid and $30 billion in credit lines for the 2025-2027 period. This includes the Ten-Point Action Plan and implementing “small yet smart” infrastructure projects across Africa.
However, China’s approach includes significant risks. Trade imbalances persist. Chinese loan commitments have plummeted from $28.5 billion in 2016 to less than $1 billion in 2022. The recent pledge of $50.70 billion for 2024-2027 falls notably below its 2018 financing commitment, reflecting both domestic economic challenges and growing concerns among African countries about Chinese debt. Rising environmental degradation and infrastructure quality issues linked to Chinese projects raise sustainability concerns. This has also created openings for alternative development partnerships from the U.S. and Western allies to provide competitive alternatives to Chinese engagement.
Net Assessment
The message to the world and the United States is unequivocal: China is winning Africa not due to predatory practices but through offering more attractive partnership terms. Meanwhile, Western attention to Africa has waned. Failure to address China’s advancing position risks three critical outcomes. First, Western access to strategic resources essential for renewable energy and advanced technology will become increasingly dependent on Chinese goodwill. Second, China’s growing military presence will compromise Western naval operations in vital maritime corridors. Third, China’s diplomatic influence with African nations will increasingly challenge Western positions in international forums.
The U.S. response requires a fundamental revision of engagement with Africa. Support for the African Continental Free Trade Agreement must be prioritized to develop alternative supply chains and reduce Chinese trade dominance. The pending reauthorization of the U.S. African Growth and Opportunity Act presents a critical opportunity to emphasize genuine market access rather than diplomatic leverage. Infrastructure investment models must transition toward sustainable financing mechanisms that emphasize long-term operational viability, particularly in urban centers where Africa’s future economic growth will concentrate. And diplomatic outreach must demonstrate a genuine commitment to Africa’s own development priorities, rather than pursuing narrow U.S. interests.
Crucially, major global powers – the EU, Japan, and India – should leverage their historical ties and technological expertise to expand sustainable infrastructure partnerships that dilute China’s dominance in Africa. The EU should leverage its Green Deal External Investment Plan while Japan and India scale up their digital innovation partnerships through existing multilateral frameworks.
The choice facing global powers is to either recalibrate their Africa policies through reformed partnership models or accept a future where China exclusively dominates one of the world’s most resource-rich and demographically significant regions.
The China-Africa liner “Dahong 16” loaded with cargo sets sail for Nigeria from Longkou port area of Yantai Port in Shandong province, China, on Dec 24, 2024. (Photo credit should read CFOTO/Future Publishing via Getty Images)
