Migration as a Threat to International Security

U.S. President Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential election, against the backdrop of rising populist and right-wing governments in Europe, reflects the repercussions of unfettered migration. The issue of migration is becoming more important in shaping global politics, and concerns are growing about its impact on international security. 

What Does Data Tell Us?

According to a Pew Research report, the global number of international migrants reached 281 million, or 3.6% of the world’s population in 2020, despite travel restrictions from the COVID-19 pandemic. Europe and Asia were the regions home to the largest migrant populations, with 86.7 million and 85.6 million international migrants, respectively. Among individual countries, the United States had the largest migrant population, with nearly 51 million, followed by Germany (15.8 million) and Saudi Arabia (13.5 million). India remained the top origin country, with 17.9 million migrants, followed by Mexico and Russia with 11.2 million and 10.8 million emigrants, respectively. 

The Power of Immigrants in Domestic Politics

In North American and European countries, immigrants are becoming important voting blocs, shaping national policies, including those on immigration. Politicians, responding to this demographic shift, are either aligning with or opposing their demands, increasing the risk of polarization and instability. Naturalized immigrants entering domestic politics in countries such as Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States are influencing policy structures and reshaping domestic agendas in these countries.

Migration and subsequent diaspora politics can fuel separatist and extremist movements. Marginalized migrant communities may promote destabilizing ideologies, leading to domestic unrest and transnational conflicts. A key example is the rise of Khalistani separatism in Canada and the United Kingdom, creating internal chaos and deteriorating diplomatic relations between them and India. Such movements, rooted in historical grievances, threaten the security of both host and source nations. 

Furthermore, migration is fundamentally altering the cultural and social fabric of host countries, causing tensions between immigrants and native populations. As newcomers bring different cultures, languages, and traditions, uncontrolled immigration threatens societal cohesion. The integration process can strain social unity, especially if immigrants are seen as economically burdensome or culturally incompatible, potentially triggering xenophobia, internal strife, and civil unrest.

Migration also poses significant economic challenges such as welfare costs, job market disruptions, and strains on public resources. Governments spend millions managing refugees and illegal migrants, while legal migrants, though crucial for aging labor forces, may be seen as job competition. This economic tension fuels dissatisfaction, boosting populist and nationalist agendas. Governments face pressure to balance local needs with humanitarian policies, and economic instability from these tensions can exacerbate civil conflict and political polarization.

The Changing International Landscape

Trump’s victory underscored how deeply anti-immigration sentiments resonate with local populations. Similarly, the rise of political forces like the Alternative for Germany, the four-time re-election of Viktor Orbán in Hungary, former U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s controversial Rwanda migration plan, and the resignation of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in Canada amidst local backlash illustrate the significant resonance that anti-immigration rhetoric is having in the West. 

Rising nationalism is driving countries to prioritize national interests over global cooperation. Governments are tightening borders and adopting more restrictive policies. This shift undermines the framework of open borders and liberal internationalism. Multilateral agreements are weakening, and international collaboration on migration is becoming more difficult. The result is a more fragmented global order with growing tensions between national sovereignty and global solidarity.

While migration is not an immediate threat to international security, its long-term impact is profound. It is changing global dynamics and challenging traditional norms of diplomacy, cultural exchange, and cooperation. Rising nationalism, migration conflicts, and identity-based tensions point to a future of strained international relations. These changes could create a more fragmented and hostile world, driven by nationalism, political polarization, and economic competition. To manage these risks, countries will need to rethink their approaches to migration, cooperation, and security to avoid destabilizing international security.

Far-right demonstrators take to the streets in Stockholm in 2017. Credit: Photo by Frankie Fouganthin via Wikimedia Commons.