The Geopolitics of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Expansion

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is expected to expand, especially through the building of a horizontal network of regional and sub-regional integration from Central Asia outward to South Asia, the Middle East and beyond. The SCO was originally designed as an intergovernmental network that held annual summits and regular meetings involving the heads of governments. In particular, Sino-Russian relations in recent years facilitated dialogue and cooperation with other SCO and non-SCO members.

It is likely that Sino-Russian relations will be strengthened under the second Trump administration. With Iran’s admission to full membership of the SCO in July 2023, there will be more work in process, especially in the fields of connectivity and infrastructure, energy and trade, and investments in the Middle East. India and Russia share a close multidimensional relationship, which also helps the SCO enlarge further. From a geopolitical perspective, there are several fundamental factors contributing to the expansion of the SCO.

China’s Perspective on Expanding the SCO

Traditionally, China regards the SCO as a useful framework for cooperating closely in combating terrorism, extremism, separatism and various other cross-border criminal forces. As China does not anticipate that China-U.S. strategic competition will de-escalate in the next five years, the Beijing authority will work closely with SCO members to build trust between China and its close neighbors. In December 2024, China and the five Central Asian countries agreed to strengthen the China-Central Asia mechanism. China will provide 1,500 training opportunities for people from these five Central Asian countries over the next three years and will increase the number of scholarships by 600. These efforts are aimed at ensuring regional security and at nurturing future talent to bolster solidarity. Regional security is important, especially in light of potential clashes with the United States. China is also searching for new drivers of economic growth, and it would not be surprising if there were also more economic projects for SCO members in the coming years.

Russia’s Perspective on Expanding the SCO

The Russia-Ukraine war and the U.S. sanctions on Russia have pushed the Kremlin to seek alternative ways and further incentives for regional cooperation. Russian policymakers want to enhance cooperation in order to establish a system for ensuring international information security within the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) framework. The relationship between the Ukraine and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) remains an important issue under a second Trump administration. Russia is concerned about the disruptive effect of NATO enlargement. The CSTO and SCO are already interested in further cooperation. SCO members will be more willing to explore a more comprehensive security cooperation mechanism if they expect the region will face a potential upheaval in policies, markets, and geopolitics.   

Concerns From Other SCO Members

Concerns over the U.S. foreign policy and the process of de-dollarization will affect the potential enlargement of the SCO. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has threatened 100% tariffs on imports from BRICS countries if they create a new currency to rival the US dollar. Uzbekistan, the previous Chair of the SCO in 2021-2022, emphasized that the organization has been moving towards cultural-humanitarian and transport-economic cooperation. Meanwhile, fostering an alternative non-Western currency system within BRICS economies has been discussed over the years. The BRICS Interbank Cooperation Mechanism (ICM) focuses on facilitating and expanding innovative financial practices. It is possible there will be further financial cooperation between SCO and BRICS if inclusive cross-border payment instruments are built. 

The SCO in Coming Years

Compared with BRICS, the SCO’s tasks in the most general form entail remaining focused on regional security. The cooperative is expected to see a relatively slow and cautious approach from its larger members in the matter of enlarging economic cooperation, given their economic capacity and the possibility of various resources being used for the group’s collective purposes. In sum, the SCO will continue to play a dynamic role in advancing regional stability and economic growth and will serve as a platform for China and Russia to exert their influence in the region.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization Secretariat in Beijing. Credit: Photo by user N509FZ via Wikimedia Commons