The Impact of Migration on European Elections

The relationship between migration and politics is often viewed in terms of how governments shape migration policies based on their ideologies. However, another dimension warrants attention: how migration itself shapes politics. Over the past decade, migration has become a prominent topic, influencing political debates, voter behavior, and election outcomes across the globe. This dynamic is especially evident in Europe, where migration has not only driven policy agendas but has also fueled political polarization and the rise of populist movements. 

Migration and Electoral Outcomes

Migration issues intertwine with concerns over national identity, security, cultural integration, and economic inequality, shifting debates toward emotionally charged narratives and diverting attention from fact-based discussions. For instance, in Italy, over the years, the leader of the Lega party Matteo Salvini has effectively portrayed migration as a dual threat – both to Italian cultural identity and to the “millions of Italians struggling with [economic] hardship” – thereby amplifying his party’s anti-immigration narrative and electoral appeal. 

Framing migration as a crisis or existential threat creates fertile ground for political exploitation. While parties across the spectrum leverage the issue to energize voters, populist parties are the most adept at exploiting such moments. Acting as crisis entrepreneurs and portraying migration as a failure of traditional governance, they craft narratives that resonate with public fears, positioning themselves as defenders of national sovereignty and societal stability while expanding their electoral base. The 2015 migration crisis provided Hungary’s ruling party, Fidesz, and its leader Viktor Orbán, with an opportunity to politically capitalize on their anti-immigration rhetoric, transforming the crisis into a “political jackpot” that bolstered their power and influence. 

Populist and Far-right Gains in Europe 

The recent European elections marked a notable, though less dramatic than expected, shift to the right across the continent, with far-right parties gaining significantly in several member states. Data show that in Italy, the Brothers of Italy party consolidated its dominance with 28.7% of the vote. France’s Rassemblement National, running on an anti-immigration platform, captured 31.3%. Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland and Belgium’s Vlaams Belang increased their shares by 5% and 3% respectively, while the Netherlands’ Party for Freedom surged from 3.5% to 17%.

While migration was not voters’ top concern everywhere — issues like the Ukraine war or inflation dominated in some countries — its political salience derived less from its objective urgency and more from its symbolic weight. Right-wing parties successfully framed migration as evidence of the European Union’s weaknesses, using it to galvanize discontent and mobilize voters. This kept migration central to debates, even during a year of lower arrivals at the EU’s southern borders. 

The rightward shift was also fueled by centrist mainstream parties mimicking populist anti-migration rhetoric to appeal to voter concerns. This approach not only normalized far-right narratives, but also triggered a race to the bottom, with political competition increasingly centered on who could project the toughest stance on migration.

Consequences for Europe and Beyond

In Europe, fragmentation in the new European Parliament reflects broader continental dynamics, with the far right now a lasting presence. The resulting polarization risks eroding democratic norms as divisive politics take hold.

Additionally, the electoral success of populist forces is likely to result in stricter migration control and fortified borders. Yet, this creates a paradox: while these measures aim to curb migration, they are unlikely to reduce its salience. For right-wing forces, migration’s strategic value lies in keeping the issue politically alive as a perpetual crisis – not to resolve it, but to exploit its potential as an electoral weapon to rally support and reinforce agendas. This ensures that migration will remain central to public discourse, regardless of policies implemented or the issue’s actual scale.

This paradox is not unique to Europe; in the United States, migration is similarly framed as an enduring crisis, with recent electoral debates focusing less on pragmatic solutions and more on identity, fear, and power. While the Democratic Party has increasingly shifted rightward on migration, believing harsher stances essential to competing for and retaining power, Donald Trump’s recent victory highlights migration’s role as a potent political weapon. 

Defusing Migration as a Source of Voter Anxiety

To mitigate the polarizing impact of migration on electoral politics, policymakers must address the root causes of voter anxiety. While fact-based narratives are essential to counter disinformation and fearmongering, tackling socio-economic grievances – such as inequality, unemployment, and poor access to services – is even more critical. Addressing these issues helps remove migration as a scapegoat, shifting the narrative from fear and division to inclusive policies and restored trust.

People protest the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in Cologne, Germany on Feb. 01, 2024. The AfD’s anti-migrant stance, and recent reports on their secret plans for the mass deportation of migrants sparked nationwide protests. (Photo by Hesham Elsherif/Anadolu via Getty Images)