The Reality of Great Power Geopolitics in Space 

It’s been a while since power politics in outer space became more than a sci-fi cliché. The implementation of space treaties looks feeble in the face of the disruptive advantages promised by the militarization of low Earth orbit (LEO). Current calls for regulation are unlikely to prevent an orbital arms race; major powers are talking out of both sides of their mouths, advocating prevention in international forums while funding their own space militarization programs.

Eyes in the Sky 

In the next few years, we can expect astonishing developments in network-centric warfare, in which the militarization of space plays a decisive role. The Joint All-Domain Command and Control projects under development by the U.S. Department of Defense rely heavily on cislunar resources – those between the Earth and the Moon – to ensure interoperability between various forces and to anticipate hostile activities. The latest Zapad strategic exercises, carried out by Russia, China, and India (and other Asian powers), have shown how land and space assets can be used to provide situational awareness on the battlefield. Thus, there is no indication that the militarization of LEO is losing momentum. And this heavy reliance on space technology is showing its Janus face.

Tech vs. Tech

As in any arms race, the weaponization of space technology suffers from the Red Queen effect: you must run a long way to stay in the same place. As space assets are being deployed, ASAT technologies (anti-satellite weapons) are being rapidly developed. The United States is the current leader in this area and, with Operation Burnt Frost (2008), it demonstrated its potential to shoot down hostile assets with ground-to-air missiles. It is quite revealing that, shortly after mastering an effective and cost-efficient ASAT measure, Washington has banned new missile tests (2022) and continues to insist on an international ban. (In fact, the threat posed by satellite debris to global communications is real and lends some weight to the U.S. claim, despite its obvious strategic interest). 

To date, China and India show no interest in restraining their own programs. Russia has extensive experience in this field (the destruction of Kosmos 1408, an inoperative satellite, serves as evidence), and the U.S. intelligence services believe that Moscow is developing a kind of ASAT weapon of mass destruction (probably nuclear) capable of destroying satellite constellations (such as SpaceX’s Starlink, deployed over Ukraine). Russian authorities deny these claims. 

‘Spooky Action at a Distance’

But the destruction of assets in space could become obsolete as cyberwarfare technologies gain ground. Hacking, jamming, and sabotage seem to represent the real trend for the coming years. As cyberwar allows even middle powers – like Iran – to join the ASAT club, it promises to push astropolitics further into uncharted territory. Therefore, cyber-countermeasures (like Quantum Key Distribution) are expected to gain top priority on major powers’ agendas. 

Death From Above

This is the red line of astropolitics: the deployment of stationary weapons in space. The Outer Space Treaty (1967) prohibited the placement of WMDs either in orbit or on celestial bodies, and the latest U.N. PAROS resolution attempts to further restrict the military use of space. However, the disruptive potential of such options cannot be overlooked. Developments in LEO constellations are making stationary space weapons feasible, and it is only a matter of time before a major power masters this capability. 

Net Assessment

Taking into account the main developments in current astropolitical issues, the trends expected in the short term are the intensification of competition between ASAT technologies and their countermeasures, considering the centrality assumed by network-centric warfare among the great powers. Only a post-2050 horizon could bring the challenge of stationary space weapons. Despite much speculation, there are no signs of such devices being deployed in the near future.

Starlink satellites’ passage is seen on the sky in southern Poland on November 1, 2024. (Photo by Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto via Getty Images)