U.S. Foreign Policy for Central Asia Needs a Fresh Vision

Central Asia is a critical yet often overlooked region in U.S. foreign policy. The significance of the region has long been tied to American interests in Afghanistan. For instance, the most recent U.S. Strategy for Central Asia (2019-2025) heavily emphasizes policy objectives that are, in one way or another, connected to Afghanistan. However, the relevance of this strategy became increasingly questionable following the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan in August 2021. Notably, the Biden administration has not publicly revised its strategy for Central Asia since then. While Afghanistan’s stability is undeniably important for the broader region, framing Central Asia’s importance mostly through this lens is inadequate and misleading. Recent tectonic shifts in regional and global geopolitics demand a broader and more nuanced U.S. approach. Therefore, a fresh vision for Central Asia is essential if the United States wishes to remain a relevant actor in the region.

A New Geopolitical Reality of Central Asia

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Central Asian countries have faced renewed pressure from Moscow. Russia has become increasingly assertive in demanding support for its military actions in Ukraine. Some Central Asian countries have turned into hubs for circumventing Western sanctions, and the region remains one of the few places where the Russian president is still warmly welcomed. This is unsurprising, though, given Central Asian countries’ significant economic dependence on Russia. However, it is also evident that governments and businesses in the region are acting pragmatically, seizing opportunities to benefit economically and geopolitically from the new reality.

Yet beneath these “business as usual” interactions with Russia lies an effort by Central Asian countries to counterbalance Moscow’s growing influence. A multi-vector foreign policy has emerged as a dominant strategy in the region. China, with its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and increasing economic, political, and even security presence, represents a key pillar of this approach. Similarly, the European Union’s investment in Central Asia’s energy and transportation sectors has become another cornerstone. Enhanced cooperation with Türkiye and the growing role of the Organization of Turkic States are also seen as attempts to balance Moscow’s dominance. 

More crucially, the strengthening of regional cooperation among the five Central Asian countries has gained importance as a means to mitigate external pressures from major powers.

What Role for the U.S.? 

Despite its diplomatic significance for Central Asian countries, the United States remains far from being a major player in the region. More importantly, Washington appears to lack a clear and cohesive regional strategy. The current U.S. strategy essentially views Central Asia either through the lens of Afghanistan or as a theater for containing China and Russia. This is seen as a negative stance that foster suspicion toward Washington among both local governments and influential external actors instead of enhancing perceptions of the United States. Therefore, a new “positive” vision is essential for U.S. foreign policy in Central Asia.

First, the new U.S. administration needs revisit its overall strategy for Central Asia, considering recent regional and global changes. The region should be recognized for its own strategic importance, rather than being viewed merely as an extension of Washington’s policies on Afghanistan or its efforts to counter China and Russia.

Second, it is unlikely that the United States will become a key economic or geopolitical player in Central Asia. However, American political and diplomatic support for the region, heavily emphasized in the previous strategy, remains essential. 

Third, on a more practical level, U.S. support for regional cooperation efforts in Central Asia is crucial. Strengthening and expanding initiatives like the C5+1(Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) and the B5+1 (the United States plus the five Central Asian countries) formats, where possible, is particularly important.

Finally, closer coordination and cooperation with like-minded actors such as the European Union and Japan would benefit regional countries and all external stakeholders. It is surprising that, despite significant overlap between the U.S. and European agendas in Central Asia, there is minimal on-the-ground cooperation between the two.

(L-R) Murat Nurtleu, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan; Jeenbek Kulubaev, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Kyrgyz Republic; U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken; Sirojiddin Muhriddin, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Tajikistan; and Rasit Meredow, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Turkmenistan, pose for a photo before a meeting on Sept. 27, 2024, in New York. (Photo by Heather Khalifa / POOL / AFP) (Photo by HEATHER KHALIFA/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)