As Donald Trump prepares to enter the White House in January 2025, the outlook for security and peace in Gaza and the Middle East in general is pessimistic. Though Israel is already a powerful military force in the area between the Mediterranean and Tehran, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has continued lethal air attacks in Gaza and Lebanon. Israeli violence over the last year has led the International Criminal Court to issue arrest warrants for Netanyahu and his former defense minister, Yoav Gallant, for war crimes, though this has made Netanyahu even more aggressive.
Netanyahu’s avowed plans to “change” the Middle East, as he put it, include a long-term military occupation of Gaza and even the depopulation of northern Gaza. Military officials have announced that residents who have fled might not be allowed back, while the 100,000 persons who remain are being systematically denied food and medicine. Israel’s extreme right-wing ministers have been calling for the ethnic cleansing of the occupied territories and the integration of these territories into Israel.
Despite the bleak portents for regional peace, there is a viable diplomatic way forward. It would have three sequential phases: conflict management, conflict resolution, and, finally, redefining Israel-Palestine political relations.
Conflict management calls for the immediate cessation of hostilities, the exchange of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, provision of humanitarian assistance, and the return of displaced Israelis and Palestinians to their homes. The United States would need to play the lead role here, with support from the Gulf Cooperation Council states’ relief agencies. This phase would see the gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and their replacement by European and/or Arab peacekeepers.
Conflict resolution would require a fresh approach to the administration of the occupied territories by a reformed Palestine Authority. Its principal responsibility would be the rehabilitation of the Palestinian community in Gaza under credible U.S./European/Arab supervision and the development of a viable economic life, with Israel gradually allowing access to Gaza’s offshore gas reserves, and fisheries and tourism development.
The third stage, redefining Israel-Palestine ties, would require a high degree of mutual trust, with both sides moving away from their entrenched zero-sum positions. A major facilitative role could be played by the Gulf Cooperation Council states, particularly Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar, with an active U.S. presence guaranteeing Israel’s security interests. Over time, Israel could even see an easing of its concerns relating to Iran and its integration, with Iran and other neighboring states, in a regional security framework.
Recent changes in the region suggest that the peace process is feasible. So far, the Israeli approach to these regional shifts has been to exclude the Israel-Palestine issue while advancing the Abrahamic Accords and, by demonizing Iran as the principal threat to regional security, to seek a coalition made up of itself, the U.S., and Arab states to confront Iran. That is the strategic goal of the Abraham Accords. However, the Gaza conflict has reaffirmed that the Palestine issue remains at the heart of regional politics. It has also ensured that, despite U.S. blandishments, no Arab state is now willing to normalize ties with Israel until Palestinian aspirations for a sovereign state are pursued sincerely and vigorously.
Saudi Arabia has also changed its approach to both Israel and Iran. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, at a summit of Arab and Islamic states in Riyadh in early November 2024, accused Israel of committing “genocide” in Gaza and backed the “two-state solution” for Palestine. He also called on Israel not to “violate” Iranian lands. Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan stated that normalization of ties with Israel is “off the table” until Palestinian statehood is realized.
In late October, the Saudi and Iranian navies conducted joint exercises in the Gulf of Oman, while in early November, the heads of the Saudi and Iranian armed forces met in Tehran. Later, on Nov. 20, Saudi and Iranian foreign ministry officials met their counterparts in Beijing and jointly called for the end of conflict in the Middle East.
It appears that Netanyahu is now banking on U.S. President Donald Trump supporting Israel in a military confrontation with Iran, even as Iran has indicated its interest in de-escalation and improved ties with the United States.
Given that the regional scenario has fundamentally changed since Trump’s previous administration, it is likely that the president’s aversion to war could actually encourage a regionwide peace process in the Middle East.
The General Assembly adopted two resolutions during the resumed 10th Emergency Special Session of the General Assembly on “Illegal Israeli actions in occupied East Jerusalem and the rest of the Occupied Palestinian Territory”. One resolution was titled “Demand for ceasefire in Gaza” and the other “Support for the mandate of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA)”. (UN Photo/Manuel Elías)
