Has China’s BRI Proven to be a Game Changer?

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), in its present form, is a tri-pronged strategy of connectivity, infrastructure and investments that covers more than 150 countries, 30 international organizations, and investments made in 2023 valued at approximately $92.4 billion (covering roughly 212 deals). When the BRI was conceived in 2013, its three objectives were to challenge the Trans-Pacific Partnership (which China saw as an economic form of deterrence), to boost the Chinese economy by generating overseas demand, and to promote development in China’s inland. 

The project also represents geopolitical designs vis-à-vis the Western order, especially the United States. In 2017, U.S. President Trump started a tariff war against China resulting in the incorporation of the BRI in the Chinese Communist Party’s Constitution. Subsequently, the U.S. rejection of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s proposal for a “new model of major country relations” pushed China to pitch for the BRI as a framework for alternatives. This means alternative financial institutions and forums, and establishing the renminbi as an alternative to the dollar. It is a blueprint for an alternative to the U.S.-led international order.

Shape of Things

The BRI is at a nascent stage and has its own share of problems, so the initiative’s future shape remains ambiguous. However, the international order (especially the West) must brace for newer structures and innovations, especially in the field of technology, to emerge to challenge it. So there remains certain amount of unpredictability and ambiguity about the future shape of BRI. The initiative is expected to get China more political support from a broader range of countries – an asset that would help Beijing maintain balance in the region. However, at present, BRI membership does not automatically convert into strong political ties. If BRI is a team, China needs to be a team player.

Why do states join the BRI? Because China presents the project as a platform of mutual opportunities and benefits. President Xi’s speeches highlight terms like “win-win cooperation,” “joint endeavors,” and “win-win business partnerships,” espousing a sense of common stakes in development for the members of the BRI. Not that members are not aware of the “debt trap” (unserviceable debts, mortgage), lack of transparency, and environmental issues, but the immediate benefits are too good to ignore. 

Aware of these problems, Xi is talking about a debt-sustainability framework, compliance with international contracting standards, and sustainable environmental measures. Xi has also invited private finance, though there is a lot of skepticism about returns from troubled white elephant projects. 

What Does This Mean for the United States?

The United States’ hardline stance (since 2017) in the Indo-Pacific region, and the formation of the Quad (Australia, India, Japan, and the United States) have fortified Chinese apprehensions of encirclement and deterrence.  The BRI is the answer; it is the framework within which China can deal with its neighborhood in its own way through both bilateral and at times multilateral means (such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations). The possibility of U.S.-China competition is highest here, in the economic and military spheres. 

U.S. dominance in Asia has decreased, and thus the United States needs to comprehend this competition more realistically. With U.S. President Donald Trump back in the White House, Washington will take firmer stances, but outright confrontation is unrealistic. No Asian country will confront China, either.  For now, it seems the BRI could very well mature into a game changer in the next couple of decades.

An aerial drone photo taken on June 26, 2024 shows a view of the China-Kazakhstan Lianyungang Logistics Cooperation Base in Lianyungang, east China’s Jiangsu Province, the first entity project inaugurated under the Belt and Road Initiative. (Photo by Ji Chunpeng/Xinhua via Getty Images)